Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d0723a52e0724172ba04a6acce9fe2413110cfe8a1ef8d31c5c003d072e869

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $198,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,292$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	6,039$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.02	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f8…5d4dbacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x816e…c70fbacked Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdb8…2d07backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…0df4backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdfa…4551backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7329…914cbacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe902…61cfbacked Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f78…fae2backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200d…2a7ebacked Yes	1c	5,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,312$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.23	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,906$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes	4c	2,089$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	1,800$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2f…43a2backed Yes	1c	1,300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	3c	1,225$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	5c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.95	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	996.09$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	8c	952$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.18	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	3c	725.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	4c	670.78$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	570$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed Yes	9c	503.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	490.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0942…0155backed Yes	8c	483.34$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0610…a01bbacked Yes	2c	462.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65c0…e3cfbacked Yes	3c	436.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5649…0597backed Yes	7c	277.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a7…028dbacked Yes	5c	263.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	5c	214$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	10c	204.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	147.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	8c	132.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes	8c	129.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event