TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0942…0155

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Serie A, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 58 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT240%0 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.09
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.63
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.73
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+127.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.41
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+58.9%+$58.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.