Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8494a3e803fc4ccc050af4c489fbe0ee77c047b4b337efb11b088bdb72bfbeec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $472,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 37,409$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.36 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 34,605$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.62 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 20,731$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 0c | 19,146$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 2c | 18,912$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.7 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 18,909$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.69 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,439$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 8,461$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 1c | 7,163$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,219$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 1c | 5,549$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 5,152$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 1c | 4,991$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,641$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,418$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c223backed Yes | 1c | 4,195$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 4,096$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 3,915$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 3,753$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 2c | 3,221$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,706$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 4c | 2,695$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 1c | 2,544$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…e76abacked Yes | 2c | 2,504$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 1c | 2,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,136$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 1c | 2,112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 3c | 1,919$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 1c | 1,652$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,536$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,506$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,294$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 1c | 1,258$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…72ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…1334backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…ee1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…2d92backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…2d01backed Yes | 2c | 930$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 902.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 898.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…3b6abacked Yes | 3c | 858$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 773.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 762$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 727.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…d687backed Yes | 2c | 694.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 652.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 3c | 642.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 2c | 634.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 3c | 631.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 3c | 627.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…5d93backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 543.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a5…8c67backed Yes | 3c | 476.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 470.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.