Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e140c2f955327cb4cc05a618b6ffb09c9b4f9bfd454bd9f483c838802f8100

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 16, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $551,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $299,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6054…d55ebacked Yes	0c	80,581$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	33,333$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes	1c	25,560$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.85	227	10.1%23 W · 204 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-35%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	1c	24,852$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.23	181	8.3%15 W · 166 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	24,125$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.86	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes	6c	15,913$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$875.79	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	0c	15,525$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	10c	15,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	0c	11,375$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	11,042$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.74	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	11,000$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.5	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dc…e37abacked Yes	0c	10,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	4c	8,786$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.68	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	0c	5,555$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	59	10.2%6 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	5,262$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.12	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	4,729$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.84	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	4c	4,659$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.3	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	4,056$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.55	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes	1c	3,563$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	12c	3,500$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.99	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	9c	3,105$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.06	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	12c	3,069$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.94	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x388f…4083backed Yes	11c	3,045$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.97	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3400…14eebacked Yes	3c	2,929$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Yes	1c	2,731$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.27	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-28%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b5…1be0backed Yes	13c	2,651$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.29	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	30cpaid	+71.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,390$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.3	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	2,282$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.19	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	1c	2,213$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,189$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes	10c	2,132$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.37	69	4.3%3 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes	12c	2,100$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+77.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	1c	2,024$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes	15c	1,942$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.11	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd10…b156backed Yes	1c	1,815$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	4c	1,463$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.86	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,409$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	1,400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	7c	1,381$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.64	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes	10c	1,344$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.83	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…5bd1backed Yes	3c	1,327$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	1,300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.9	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	13c	1,103$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.37	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x565d…bcf2backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7e3…6257backed Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94e…01a9backed Yes	1c	936$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	919.74$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.41	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d16…9686backed Yes	4c	908.01$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	13c	889.31$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.7	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes	12c	825$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	62	8.1%5 W · 57 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes	7c	800$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes	10c	799.99$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes	13c	777.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	702.19$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb547…f81abacked Yes	11c	677.82$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.56	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	12c	626$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.62	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11bb…3f86backed Yes	3c	586$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5394…c1a5backed Yes	4c	546.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	8c	538.92$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes	11c	538.36$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes	14c	521.87$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.06	127	45.7%58 W · 69 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53dd…2a64backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…03efbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…d953backed Yes	14c	483.15$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes	10c	481.82$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	84	15.5%13 W · 71 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	9c	409.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.33	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+79.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	11c	365$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	355$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	5c	349.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	7c	344.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3502…ae31backed Yes	8c	341.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9503…c47fbacked Yes	11c	318.18$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6d07…4010backed Yes	8c	315$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	10c	307$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	7c	304.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	10c	281$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd00a…6f51backed Yes	7c	231$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+99.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	12c	220.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.44	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	12c	206.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb858…a140backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	190$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddf…98f0backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes	8c	175$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	10c	163$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd8…3047backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b0…b9f9backed Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed Yes	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?this page
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event