Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e727cc02b9a1156584b713b45f0d0a53259898e2e828ce6efefe12893b4ed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $571,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 0c | 88,729$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…d55ebacked Yes | 2c | 31,724$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,879$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 15,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 14,608$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.88 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 13,937$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.44 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,122$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.71 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 10,003$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.14 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 13c | 9,197$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 0c | 8,577$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,552$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 1c | 6,096$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 15c | 6,005$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.53 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,593$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.48 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 5,053$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 18c | 4,724$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.63 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 4,530$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.08 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,467$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 16c | 4,162$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 19c | 3,891$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.21 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 3,028$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.29 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 20c | 3,001$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.41 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.65 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 2,940$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.54 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 21c | 2,905$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.82 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 20c | 2,882$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,815$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 2,608$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…9379backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 2,343$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.46 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 8c | 2,102$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 14c | 2,020$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 18c | 1,971$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.98 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 1,794$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 20c | 1,754$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 16c | 1,685$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.6 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 16c | 1,652$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.31 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…14eebacked Yes | 6c | 1,626$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…9533backed Yes | 13c | 1,493$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.75 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 19c | 1,162$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 13c | 1,150$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…aa13backed Yes | 15c | 1,134$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 20c | 1,040$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 952.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 928.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…1788backed Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 8c | 850$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…6af4backed Yes | 22c | 768.52$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 768$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 709.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 700$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 664.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 659$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 3c | 654.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 633.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 15c | 625$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe69e…61d2backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 18c | 623.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 16c | 620.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 11c | 611.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 19c | 603.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 17c | 601.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 599.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 17c | 590.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 17c | 581.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 11c | 579.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 20c | 553.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…fe87backed Yes | 16c | 539.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…2251backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 20c | 523.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8391…6b46backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 20c | 497.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 22c | 465.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…1be9backed Yes | 22c | 455.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 18c | 419.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…5d1fbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 6c | 399.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 20c | 344.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 16c | 307.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 17c | 302.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 17c | 299.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.