Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e898d8bc9d2660fc16d2cc70496dd705448a5767f846a52f4b145f4513c4048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $789,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $744,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $789,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 455 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 61c | 27,497$16,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,675.05 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 33c | 20,526$6,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,838.23 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 19c | 18,211$3,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,804.48 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 29c | 10,605$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,512.57 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 30c | 9,052$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,364.19 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 27c | 8,782$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.26 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 22c | 8,075$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,327.76 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 46c | 8,046$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370.34 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 23c | 7,133$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,522.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 51c | 6,135$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 37c | 6,049$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,809.06 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 28c | 5,987$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,307.41 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 5,892$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,271.1 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,825$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,097.75 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 5,486$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,755.56 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 54c | 5,374$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 47c | 5,370$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 34c | 5,335$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,539.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 34c | 5,111$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.08 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 80c | 5,050$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.22 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 5,003$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.68 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 29c | 5,000$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.99 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 40c | 4,706$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.71 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 27c | 4,439$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.78 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 12c | 4,238$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,737.97 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 24c | 4,012$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.59 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 46c | 3,928$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.87 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 10c | 3,866$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,463.94 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 40c | 3,807$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.46 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 45c | 3,723$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.68 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 35c | 3,621$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.13 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 62c | 3,565$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.38 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed No | 67c | 3,528$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 36c | 3,491$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.42 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 40c | 3,376$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.45 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,271$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.91 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 80c | 3,123$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 36c | 2,935$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.64 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 20c | 2,772$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.57 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 59c | 2,755$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.18 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x769f…a95bbacked No | 72c | 2,713$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 44c | 2,688$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.3 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 8c | 2,665$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 2,649$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.35 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 44c | 2,633$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.56 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 37c | 2,594$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.53 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 45c | 2,593$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.27 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 20c | 2,567$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.77 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 69c | 2,466$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.21 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 60c | 2,276$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.71 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,229$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.32 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 2,191$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.57 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 62c | 2,172$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.16 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 39c | 2,070$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.28 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 19c | 2,034$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.89 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 2,013$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.07 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.98 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,979$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.58 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed No | 43c | 1,870$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 22c | 1,825$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.62 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked No | 59c | 1,791$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.16 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 28c | 1,757$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.22 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 24c | 1,752$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.98 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 37c | 1,717$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.4 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed No | 69c | 1,697$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.05 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 1,666$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.08 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 50c | 1,612$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 18c | 1,527$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.4 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…3d26backed No | 73c | 1,483$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 30c | 1,440$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.13 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 43c | 1,430$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,427$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.87 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 58c | 1,419$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 19c | 1,400$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.96 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 27c | 1,350$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.87 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 1,285$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.58 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 32c | 1,205$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.63 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 38c | 1,196$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.04 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 43c | 1,182$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 27c | 1,175$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 27c | 1,171$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.39 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 22c | 1,166$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.8 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 34c | 1,158$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.44 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,154$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.73 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 36c | 1,102$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.61 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 61c | 1,100$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,075$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.14 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 31c | 1,052$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 27c | 1,051$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.7 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 47c | 1,041$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.23 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 2c | 1,032$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 9c | 1,019$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…2d92backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 990.65$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.82 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 41c | 971.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 42c | 965.61$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.92 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 44c | 919.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.