TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c52,822$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.147966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes4c19,616$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.045910.2%6 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes3c18,124$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.63267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes3c11,747$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8921810.1%22 W · 196 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c10,350$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.245249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes1c10,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.28616.3%14 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c9,728$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.162715.2%14 W · 257 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c9,337$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.541868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c9,047$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.422,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c8,599$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.143876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes1c8,163$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.22694.3%3 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes3c6,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501922.1%4 W · 188 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes3c5,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130953.2%3 W · 92 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes2c4,865$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5822710.1%23 W · 204 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes1c4,855$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.27545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,608$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.112,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes4c4,282$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.773411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes1c4,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8234714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes1c3,361$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.744617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes1c3,072$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.141506%9 W · 141 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes3c2,540$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.165115.7%8 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…e76abacked Yes4c2,528$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes2c2,441$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes4c2,437$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5934017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes2c2,393$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.431818.3%15 W · 166 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes2c2,325$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…9508backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004314%6 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c1,682$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1868615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,674$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c1,638$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.41,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4119…e1d1backed Yes3c1,581$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.011225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes2c1,560$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.489914.1%14 W · 85 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed7c…9400backed Yes2c1,550$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes5c1,478$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes2c1,440$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56290%0 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes2c1,405$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.39214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes3c1,400$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.958011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes2c1,400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412015%18 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes3c1,353$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.767626.3%20 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes1c1,256$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04628.1%5 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes4c1,226$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503315.2%5 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes2c1,213$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5528113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes1c1,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145018%9 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…8059backed Yes3c1,169$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0942…0155backed Yes2c1,165$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20240%0 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa4…1334backed Yes2c1,155$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d6…21f7backed Yes4c1,142$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes3c1,104$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6532615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes1c1,104$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5130310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34a…8251backed Yes3c1,052$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6581…5285backed Yes3c1,010$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes5c1,008$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes4c1,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f2…7db1backed Yes3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810016%16 W · 84 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes2c938.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613011.5%15 W · 115 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb840…5d93backed Yes5c881.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes2c864.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9914715%22 W · 125 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed Yes4c861.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…5defbacked Yes2c817.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f8…a80abacked Yes2c783.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878b…72ecbacked Yes4c769.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…caa7backed Yes2c755.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes2c748.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.042119%4 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes3c743.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1812745.7%58 W · 69 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…8c8fbacked Yes3c721$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf112…a0adbacked Yes3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22010%2 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-58.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c699.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x669a…4a3cbacked Yes3c678.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes4c664.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253611.1%4 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes4c652.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292020%4 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5592…7d15backed Yes3c648$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be5…4ab2backed Yes3c619$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes3c609.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5341017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2969…d063backed Yes5c577$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0100…c58abacked Yes2c569.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ba…f62cbacked Yes3c568$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes3c543.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes3c543.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid+139.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4803…a6febacked Yes4c493$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes4c457.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.463810.5%4 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes4c427.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd8…3047backed Yes5c425.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes3c413.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206725.4%17 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…dc5ebacked Yes4c296$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed Yes4c281.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125817.2%10 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes4c276.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1665311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.