Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb954c7a0f753164dfe3b34e50bd2db75bf7db33a2550d05d2d98e9e36317cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $461,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 52,822$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.14 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 4c | 19,616$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.04 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 18,124$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.6 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 11,747$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 10,350$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 9,728$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 9,337$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.54 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 9,047$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 8,599$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 8,163$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,865$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 4,855$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,608$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 4c | 4,282$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 1c | 3,361$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 3,072$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,540$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…e76abacked Yes | 4c | 2,528$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 2,441$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 2,437$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,393$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 2c | 2,325$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,674$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,638$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4119…e1d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,581$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,560$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 5c | 1,478$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,405$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 3c | 1,353$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,256$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 4c | 1,226$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 2c | 1,213$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…1334backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,104$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 3c | 1,052$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…5285backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 2c | 938.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…5d93backed Yes | 5c | 881.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 864.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 4c | 861.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked Yes | 2c | 817.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 2c | 783.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…72ecbacked Yes | 4c | 769.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…caa7backed Yes | 2c | 755.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 2c | 748.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 3c | 743.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…8c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 721$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 699.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…4a3cbacked Yes | 3c | 678.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 664.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 652.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…7d15backed Yes | 3c | 648$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…4ab2backed Yes | 3c | 619$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 609.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…d063backed Yes | 5c | 577$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 2c | 569.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ba…f62cbacked Yes | 3c | 568$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 3c | 543.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 3c | 543.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…a6febacked Yes | 4c | 493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 4c | 457.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 4c | 427.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 5c | 425.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 3c | 413.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…dc5ebacked Yes | 4c | 296$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 4c | 281.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 276.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.