TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6dd8…3047

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Boxing, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 52 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT3119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$223.9
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.19
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.87
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+26.9%+$159.45
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+112.6%+$129.49
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.45
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+123.5%+$163.04
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+353.8%+$212.26
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeskibacked Spann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$16.47
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$34.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$356.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.