Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccbd71f2ec69b959e57c0d28d94655dad09277aa4550b6a2691de992895478cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $636,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $396,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $636,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 10c | 70,882$7,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,386.16 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 21,174$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.05 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 14c | 14,959$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.76 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 13,920$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.44 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 9c | 13,497$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.01 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,410$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 11c | 12,141$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.64 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 0c | 11,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,653$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 9,107$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.53 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 14c | 7,277$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.59 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 26c | 7,053$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.88 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 6,505$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.74 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 17c | 6,333$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 14c | 6,287$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 11c | 6,074$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.1 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 5,933$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.88 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 5,722$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.14 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 23c | 5,477$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.69 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 4,637$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.85 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed Yes | 5c | 4,500$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 4,474$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 4,126$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.92 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 3,998$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.62 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 3c | 3,848$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,654$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.54 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 3,603$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.26 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,599$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.52 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 3,556$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.1 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,534$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.4 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 3c | 3,492$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 14c | 3,461$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.75 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 36c | 3,336$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.41 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,772$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 51c | 2,689$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 20c | 2,618$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 15c | 2,469$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 16c | 2,456$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.37 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 55c | 2,344$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.95 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 28c | 2,339$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 4c | 2,284$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 19c | 2,273$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.88 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 13c | 2,217$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…aa13backed Yes | 20c | 2,054$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,880$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 18c | 1,766$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.92 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 38c | 1,615$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.7 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 34c | 1,587$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,563$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.58 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 78c | 1,547$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 24c | 1,533$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.85 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,515$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…d349backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 30c | 1,400$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.3 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 15c | 1,261$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,227$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 17c | 1,189$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 1,116$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,105$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 1,073$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.08 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,058$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 13c | 1,051$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…1d97backed Yes | 4c | 1,017$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 13c | 1,003$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 13c | 1,003$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…6392backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 984.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 27c | 899.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.59 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 58c | 891$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.21 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 33c | 873.56$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 23c | 865$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 42c | 854.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 839.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 27c | 815.75$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 799.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 16c | 799.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 3c | 796.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 21c | 778.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 36c | 764.47$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.83 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 20c | 740$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 24c | 736.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 21c | 734$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 33c | 733.18$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 69c | 724$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 28c | 722.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 22c | 705.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 18c | 702.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 10c | 701.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 663.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 22c | 660.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.