Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7a8a2480e8ac7ddfa9b5c9023bbb36ff508294baf1e7a4d280a58176b40c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $324,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 58,289$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 38,677$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.8 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 0c | 27,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 16,768$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.92 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.8 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,353$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.45 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 9,709$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 8,161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,292$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,184$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,660$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 2c | 5,049$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 3c | 4,389$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…be56backed Yes | 5c | 3,979$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 3,025$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 2,938$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,449$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 2,386$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 2,350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 2,223$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 2,110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 2,010$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,377$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 3c | 999.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 4c | 803.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 769.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…380bbacked Yes | 3c | 713$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 4c | 699.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 622.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 3c | 601$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 5c | 436.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…9bcbbacked Yes | 3c | 430$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…0e9cbacked Yes | 4c | 417.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 5c | 413.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 3c | 368.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 4c | 345.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…c28dbacked Yes | 5c | 307.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 7c | 304.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 5c | 279.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 5c | 271.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 239.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.