Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb2df4b3439f41f70c72daa4af20e0dd3fcbc26dad5a2763885420c876c9d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $501,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 77,035$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.92 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 30,025$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.6 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 26,025$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.11 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,950$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.18 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 4c | 22,297$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.49 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 0c | 12,758$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 0c | 10,754$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 2c | 9,326$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,000$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 7,484$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 1c | 7,420$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 6,475$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 2c | 5,961$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 4c | 5,452$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,428$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,074$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 4,610$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 5c | 4,428$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.19 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,923$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 4c | 3,838$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,590$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 3,330$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 4c | 3,034$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 5c | 3,019$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,819$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,667$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,641$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,593$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 5c | 2,309$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 2,019$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…9cb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,010$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,966$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,321$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 3c | 1,192$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 3c | 859.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 3c | 856.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…f6eabacked Yes | 3c | 739.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 648.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 3c | 622.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 479$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…c44abacked Yes | 5c | 360.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 4c | 314.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…11f5backed Yes | 4c | 279$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 5c | 271.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 5c | 211.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…3151backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 9c | 123.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.