Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f7fa063f2f30fcd1e7599f9718b464b6f943c41f54dda7b45b31a647dc2f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $643,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $643,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 33,848$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.13 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 16,358$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.37 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,823$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.14 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 12,981$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.18 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 6c | 12,395$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.99 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 11,196$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.87 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 11,022$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.07 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 9,540$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.07 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 9,136$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.24 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 1c | 8,395$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 3c | 8,092$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 7,293$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.86 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 14c | 6,898$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.83 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 6,545$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.13 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 5,826$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 7c | 5,362$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.34 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 5,276$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.86 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 5,227$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.05 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 5,204$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.73 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,535$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 4,532$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.36 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked No | 68c | 4,529$3,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.94 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 4,006$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 27c | 3,889$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.24 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,838$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 3,754$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.06 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 3,691$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.6 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,624$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.68 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 3,624$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.86 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed Yes | 7c | 3,500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 22c | 3,378$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.19 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,190$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 3,189$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 9c | 3,129$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 4c | 3,060$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 10c | 2,963$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 2,900$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 13c | 2,751$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,684$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 2,600$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.99 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…1f07backed Yes | 5c | 2,492$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 21c | 2,450$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 2,411$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…be56backed Yes | 9c | 2,323$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 10c | 2,243$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.35 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 10c | 2,077$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 9c | 2,047$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.21 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,860$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f01bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,842$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…a167backed Yes | 12c | 1,655$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,650$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,578$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 17c | 1,507$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 1,502$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 14c | 1,389$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 15c | 1,337$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 21c | 1,205$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb840…5d93backed Yes | 15c | 1,169$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,158$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 5c | 1,136$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…aa13backed Yes | 35c | 1,118$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a41…9b31backed Yes | 13c | 1,028$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 1c | 1,015$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…6392backed Yes | 12c | 1,005$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 5c | 976.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf254…8e9bbacked No | 71c | 960.84$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 14c | 920.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…03a6backed Yes | 29c | 902$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…d349backed Yes | 26c | 891.09$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 8c | 860.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…5d1fbacked Yes | 1c | 858$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 10c | 836.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 21c | 821.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.9 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 16c | 815.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 12c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 10c | 800$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 5c | 799.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…ccd6backed Yes | 20c | 795.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 23c | 795.61$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 11c | 789.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 13c | 768.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 27c | 763.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.77 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 8c | 738.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 20c | 731.89$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 19c | 727.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 14c | 727.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…bc17backed Yes | 20c | 721.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a16…f78dbacked Yes | 18c | 704.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 18c | 670$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…c5efbacked Yes | 10c | 638.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 6c | 589.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 11c | 573.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 537.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 7c | 525.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.