Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850714664b0014f95178efcb02a1b13d7f968139761c6ee31239e24e2ec087e1

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $607,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $304,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,095 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes	1c	83,912$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.1	227	10.1%23 W · 204 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-35%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	2c	20,770$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.31	181	8.3%15 W · 166 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	18,250$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.64	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes	4c	15,913$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.48	69	4.3%3 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd12d…d764backed Yes	2c	15,023$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.66	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes	2c	14,358$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.18	79	10.1%8 W · 71 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	13,000$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.99	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817e…be56backed Yes	1c	12,843$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	1c	12,322$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	10,719$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.59	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	3c	8,471$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.71	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	8,275$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	7,924$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.67	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	7,511$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.8	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	6,988$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.7	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,791$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.82	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	5c	6,572$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	5,560$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.29	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a41…9b31backed Yes	3c	5,420$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	3c	5,402$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.57	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec2…b66cbacked Yes	3c	5,242$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,017$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	3,709$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.94	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	3c	3,621$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.25	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…ccd6backed Yes	3c	3,585$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked Yes	4c	3,449$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.41	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	6c	3,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e6…2436backed Yes	9c	3,330$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb840…5d93backed Yes	2c	3,188$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.34	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	3c	3,177$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.11	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	3c	3,141$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.9	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0a…d40ebacked Yes	4c	2,824$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	4c	2,797$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.35	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Yes	6c	2,391$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.43	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	2,289$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.28	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3757…ec0fbacked Yes	2c	2,200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe485…8073backed Yes	3c	2,195$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes	3c	2,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…03efbacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.14	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3bde…c8d5backed Yes	2c	1,895$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes	2c	1,774$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	2c	1,721$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad2…c594backed Yes	8c	1,702$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	5c	1,645$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes	3c	1,629$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	84	15.5%13 W · 71 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa73f…c5efbacked Yes	3c	1,602$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf673…406fbacked Yes	1c	1,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	4c	1,540$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes	7c	1,299$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes	3c	1,278$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.64	100	8%8 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	2c	1,227$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	63	6.3%4 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	7c	1,215$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	8c	1,191$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.29	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…1810backed Yes	3c	1,164$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed Yes	1c	1,102$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	6c	1,100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes	4c	1,086$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	2c	1,070$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…954abacked Yes	1c	1,004$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	1,003$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Yes	2c	926.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6296…7ad8backed Yes	3c	892.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6101…6de6backed Yes	3c	854.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	14cpaid	+168.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes	3c	815.75$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.01	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes	7c	806.46$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	157	17.8%28 W · 129 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	8c	800.61$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.75	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	5c	800$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c2…29f9backed Yes	2c	799.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd626…89cebacked Yes	4c	757$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes	4c	739.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes	3c	720$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca9…e423backed Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bc…e0d7backed Yes	2c	694.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4e…25a6backed Yes	3c	662.86$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b1…cde7backed Yes	2c	656.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes	4c	650$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.96	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	8c	604.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	85	18.8%16 W · 69 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc4…a912backed Yes	3c	596$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ba…d429backed Yes	3c	576.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe79…9d68backed Yes	3c	563.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…a487backed Yes	3c	550$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	3c	550$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb959…7ee3backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	8c	499.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	7c	480$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.94	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	4c	441.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0d…aba5backed Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes	4c	419.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	416.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4c…d033backed Yes	4c	375.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?this page
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event