Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46bd00fb6556f0d6f041642ce40bc5a40b799370a7ee87caec2d47185def37f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 34,961$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.56 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,082$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 18,058$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.01 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…b66cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,476$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 10,278$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…dc91backed Yes | 0c | 10,109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 8,530$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.23 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,545$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 7,061$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.68 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a41…9b31backed Yes | 1c | 6,932$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,921$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.32 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,901$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 3c | 3,948$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,343$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 3,151$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 2,987$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 2,978$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,781$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…d40ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,750$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…31d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,512$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,374$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,315$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 1,982$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,969$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,956$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,765$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 2c | 1,294$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,229$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 4c | 1,158$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…d349backed Yes | 4c | 945$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 5c | 938.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 3c | 831.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 4c | 816.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 750.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 5c | 732.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 3c | 650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 2c | 647.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 6c | 624.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 5c | 581.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ce…533abacked Yes | 5c | 506.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 4c | 500.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 5c | 493.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…7c2fbacked Yes | 5c | 437.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed Yes | 6c | 430.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 4c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 4c | 398.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…0c55backed Yes | 5c | 392.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 4c | 390.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…d20abacked Yes | 5c | 286.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 5c | 203.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 8c | 123.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.