TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x55ce…533a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tennis, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 60 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+73.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.89
Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Ferybacked Arthur Fery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$73.45
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Jasmine Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$63.33
Wimbledon ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Michael Zhengbacked Nicolas Mejia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Wimbledon ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Learner Tienbacked Marton Fucsovics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$47.5
Wimbledon ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Stan Wawrinka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.74
Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Sheltonbacked Otto Virtanen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+190.3%+$93.19
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.95
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+448%+$134.39
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+288.9%+$101.11
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.