Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45a17a7f0aecd784a54ed88ba578ae13587b3fae8dde8d24dd4ef1adeaf8647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $575,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 2c | 26,829$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.42 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 15,857$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.17 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 7c | 15,015$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.04 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 31c | 13,533$4,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,166.63 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 31c | 12,345$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.75 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 73c | 11,809$8,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157.95 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 23c | 11,787$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.26 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 34c | 11,702$3,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,970.06 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,940$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 30c | 10,889$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.96 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 32c | 10,870$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.09 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 19c | 10,618$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.77 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 23c | 9,907$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.18 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 9,853$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 25c | 9,661$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.48 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 37c | 6,068$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.49 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 28c | 5,841$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.6 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 5,557$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.16 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 56c | 5,054$2,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.07 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 21c | 4,779$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.83 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 4,775$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.67 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,443$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 4,348$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.54 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 20c | 4,260$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.49 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 4,199$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.59 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 19c | 4,051$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.41 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 33c | 4,014$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.41 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 26c | 3,806$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.2 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 3,191$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.93 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 34c | 3,104$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.51 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,950$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 20c | 2,924$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 35c | 2,575$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 2,385$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.03 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…3c34backed Yes | 19c | 2,288$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,246$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 18c | 2,200$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 19c | 2,121$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 13c | 2,019$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 13c | 2,012$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.69 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,001$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.99 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,929$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.52 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,895$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.8 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 35c | 1,860$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 13c | 1,783$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 37c | 1,729$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 23c | 1,709$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 39c | 1,694$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.3 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,610$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.04 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 52c | 1,609$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 28c | 1,576$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 39c | 1,572$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 26c | 1,510$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.79 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 22c | 1,502$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.82 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 20c | 1,464$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 68c | 1,452$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 29c | 1,434$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 63c | 1,375$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.51 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 30c | 1,300$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 68c | 1,294$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.7 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 47c | 1,271$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 19c | 1,229$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.16 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 24c | 1,223$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.87 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 33c | 1,099$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.71 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,028$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,025$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 28c | 1,004$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 973.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 42c | 956.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 21c | 948.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 30c | 938.46$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 41c | 927.41$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.1 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 34c | 904.06$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 19c | 882.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 19c | 865.74$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 29c | 851.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 27c | 851.76$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 10c | 850$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…463fbacked Yes | 2c | 807.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 12c | 800.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 72c | 781.91$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 775.27$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 37c | 773$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 48c | 766.74$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 759.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…f03cbacked Yes | 28c | 753.43$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 29c | 736.21$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…afd5backed Yes | 6c | 735$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 23c | 729.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…ad34backed Yes | 39c | 717.58$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 20c | 700$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 47c | 688.78$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…22dabacked Yes | 15c | 678.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.