Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f648bbd15e37e40129fa565838b5cebafd53923ba950d69336a91960a84fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $810,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $810,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 54,243$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 28,878$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.59 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 23,865$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.07 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 23,659$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.79 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…49b5backed Yes | 0c | 22,918$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 18,500$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.47 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 12,239$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.56 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 1c | 11,271$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 10,957$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 9,891$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 8,485$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.82 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 7,687$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.05 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 1c | 7,569$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,504$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 1c | 7,346$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 1c | 7,240$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 5c | 6,714$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.59 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,547$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 6,483$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…31b8backed Yes | 0c | 6,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 11c | 6,168$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 3c | 5,981$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 5,924$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 5,390$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 5,012$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,701$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 3,515$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 1c | 3,406$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…a615backed Yes | 1c | 3,361$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,225$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 3,159$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,974$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…c520backed Yes | 1c | 2,878$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 2,770$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…f6eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,642$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 2c | 2,605$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,546$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 1c | 2,440$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,377$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,328$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 10c | 2,322$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.35 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…7d91backed Yes | 3c | 2,298$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…0bd8backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 6c | 2,074$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…9500backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,827$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 1c | 1,823$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 69c | 1,812$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.01 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,631$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,569$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 2c | 1,539$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 1,493$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 1,491$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,418$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.32 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 1c | 1,409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,390$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 1,301$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,267$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…fb92backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,241$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…ad34backed Yes | 2c | 1,233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…5a0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…60c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 1,142$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,092$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,079$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8448backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 1,041$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,035$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfa…2e4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 11c | 859.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 9c | 822.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 8c | 819.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed Yes | 9c | 799.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…082fbacked Yes | 3c | 774.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 1c | 760.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6439…a88abacked Yes | 2c | 753.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 730.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…7e55backed Yes | 3c | 722.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 4c | 722.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 696.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…3834backed Yes | 5c | 664.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 638.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 15c | 605.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 7c | 599.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 599.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 14c | 599.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 3c | 591.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 5c | 585.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.