Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65374a062826baf3a263cf5432290374a5c6b1755aaf1510abd05df4b3730e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $762,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 47,346$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.36 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 31,142$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.28 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 24,477$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 0c | 22,674$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 8c | 22,630$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.57 | 584 | 22.1%129 W · 455 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 8c | 15,140$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 4c | 14,548$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.29 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 7c | 12,854$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.58 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 8c | 11,061$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.83 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 10,205$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.92 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 3c | 9,537$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 11c | 8,752$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.81 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,700$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,656$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.74 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 15c | 7,688$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 5c | 7,439$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.41 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 7,374$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,050$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.58 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 7,006$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.12 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 7,006$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.25 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 14c | 5,807$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.45 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 7c | 5,606$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.52 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 5c | 5,129$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.47 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 4,941$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.36 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 4,675$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.7 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 1c | 4,529$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 4,056$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.66 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 3,971$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 3,863$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.09 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 3,527$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.31 | 442 | 19.5%86 W · 356 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,431$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,402$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.41 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…a615backed Yes | 13c | 3,270$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 3,232$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,033$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 15c | 2,861$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 11c | 2,768$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.97 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,749$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.4 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,727$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 9c | 2,653$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.79 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 10c | 2,532$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 9c | 2,350$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 2,346$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 19c | 2,160$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.6 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 19c | 2,069$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 6c | 2,064$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 4c | 2,024$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 18c | 2,019$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,890$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 10c | 1,875$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 1,800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 13c | 1,779$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.59 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 11c | 1,643$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 15c | 1,635$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8448backed Yes | 3c | 1,598$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 4c | 1,524$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,430$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 7c | 1,355$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 232 | 19%44 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 13c | 1,271$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,181$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.86 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,145$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 541 | 17.2%93 W · 448 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 14c | 996.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed Yes | 10c | 985.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +540.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 8c | 969.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…be53backed Yes | 6c | 942.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…f8b0backed Yes | 13c | 874.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 17c | 866.21$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 851.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 852 | 16.4%140 W · 712 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 6c | 842.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2177backed Yes | 11c | 829.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 5c | 802$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 16c | 781.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 20c | 743.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…99d4backed Yes | 2c | 734.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 7c | 713.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 706.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 684.18$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.51 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 636.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 628.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 627.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 17c | 621.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 11c | 615.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 11c | 604.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 184 | 16.3%30 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 17c | 587.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…60c8backed Yes | 6c | 558.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 13c | 541.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 12c | 539.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 507.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.