Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e36b32d5506397e502868ecd2f3718e191369a4281dfa62546891ad185389b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 26,844$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 14,971$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,651$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 13,824$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,266$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 3c | 8,766$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 3c | 8,187$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.87 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 8,099$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 7,245$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 0c | 5,992$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 5,901$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,268$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 0c | 4,987$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,570$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 4,193$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 4,083$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 5c | 3,552$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,485$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 2,702$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 3c | 2,671$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 2,514$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 2,370$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,174$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 2,171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 2,122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 4c | 1,874$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,782$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 4c | 1,469$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 6c | 1,441$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…d391backed Yes | 1c | 1,290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,057$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 10c | 1,043$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 3c | 995.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 938.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 859.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed Yes | 5c | 751.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 664.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 10c | 598.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…4422backed Yes | 8c | 426.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 12c | 422.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 355.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 7c | 289.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 245.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 223.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…7637backed Yes | 12c | 214.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a60cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 8c | 188$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 9c | 167.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…0237backed Yes | 7c | 136.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +300.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.