Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451adc1a7096a1092b3b947e85f00df47407c8f31fed3f0f7ff3b6583095a935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 49,060$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.72 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 45,503$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.34 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 22,831$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.68 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 11,244$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 7c | 10,314$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.49 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 4c | 9,220$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 5c | 8,074$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.26 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,344$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 3c | 7,090$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.97 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 5c | 7,078$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 6,841$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.35 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,628$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 3c | 6,556$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.84 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 5,611$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.44 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 5,300$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 14c | 5,093$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 4,851$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.91 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 4,496$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 16c | 4,191$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.23 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 10c | 4,044$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.55 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,999$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 2,866$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 8c | 2,730$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,684$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,633$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,550$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…7ee3backed Yes | 3c | 2,538$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 16c | 2,530$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.1 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 3c | 2,364$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,274$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 12c | 2,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,083$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 12c | 2,050$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,995$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.22 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,710$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.89 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,634$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 6c | 1,440$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,371$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…8aa5backed Yes | 4c | 1,292$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…9e14backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 1,056$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 20c | 1,014$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 967.16$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.31 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 2c | 897.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 3c | 778.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…2925backed Yes | 11c | 759.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 2c | 750.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 6c | 749.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 734$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 3c | 731.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 7c | 680.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 16c | 620$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 13c | 607.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 605.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 10c | 571.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 15c | 526.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 14c | 522.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…5b49backed Yes | 2c | 508.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 3c | 502.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 15c | 499.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 2c | 480.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 6c | 465.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 7c | 413.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…4422backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…7637backed Yes | 19c | 367.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 324.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 6c | 314.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…fc82backed Yes | 7c | 307.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 268.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…4394backed Yes | 8c | 257.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked Yes | 5c | 239.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 21c | 224.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8379…7ca2backed Yes | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 6c | 200.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +264.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…0f43backed Yes | 11c | 184.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 12c | 181.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 16c | 175.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.