TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5637…7599

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Boxing, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2025, EDT3122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$782Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$782
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$278.6
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+496.5%+$1,677.51
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$376
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$227
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+427.4%+$1,227.76
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$500.2
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+733.9%+$208.91
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$630
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$695.31
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$970
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$433.74
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$305.93
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+469.1%+$1,903.71
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$297.02
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.21
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$2,157.34
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$494.38
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$516.88
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.79
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11,650.4
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,778Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$5,778.46
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$30.14
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+270.4%+$214.57
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.