Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1dbe396cfe8d2b4bb180010fc5ef6f66668356fd859f02fb0479ed381981e0b

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $165,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	25,312$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.87	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	13c	9,000$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210.97	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	6,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,623$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	5,470$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.2	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	0c	4,345$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb169…7aa7backed Yes	1c	3,187$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	2,646$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	2c	1,817$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.32	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	8c	1,727$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.2	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	1,445$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	1c	1,209$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	19c	1,199$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.19	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	4c	1,192$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	9c	1,170$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8e27…2e9bbacked Yes	2c	1,011$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	1,010$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.13	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	18c	876.24$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	860.53$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.45	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	803.41$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.95	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes	6c	750$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+475.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	15c	715.14$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.1	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	25c	699.82$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	3c	639.42$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes	13c	600$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	11c	505.31$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.06	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c44…2ba0backed Yes	21c	488.48$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	9c	472.45$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	5c	445.69$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	18c	403.92$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.75	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	16c	403.41$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	390$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	382$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.07	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	17c	360.74$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	6c	343.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	5c	337.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes	7c	300.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	157	17.8%28 W · 129 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes	19c	277.88$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	19c	250$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	21c	250$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	22c	202.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	19c	200$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Yes	19c	158.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	28c	146.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.25	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	11c	130$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	17c	116.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	19c	105.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	19c	105.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	16c	104.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdba8…8e96backed Yes	17c	104$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f84…08a6backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9daa…f4dbbacked Yes	17c	95.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fd…03babacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de9…3171backed Yes	19c	88.39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	23c	86.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Yes	21c	82.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	25c	80.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d3…a690backed Yes	19c	80$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+369.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	18c	77.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	15c	73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7381…b54bbacked Yes	19c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…b796backed Yes	19c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b1…2e4ebacked Yes	24c	65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe490…8816backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd3…934fbacked Yes	19c	59.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475a…4f78backed No	76c	38$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4503…fb89backed No	76c	34$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6423…1c12backed No	76c	34$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…1ed2backed No	76c	34$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe291…161cbacked No	76c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event