Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63b44da99d9c8c964787ee6a55b960f22d7fd5e817e5389c21f4ba219e4ffd55

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $200,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $80,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,187 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	19,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb62…dfb1backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	14,000$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	13,105$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.03	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	12,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	20c	8,626$1,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,741.13	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	5c	4,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,715$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	2,611$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	2,240$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.03	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	1,935$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.07	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	19c	1,800$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.54	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	22c	1,758$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.11	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	27c	1,617$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.5	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	7c	1,378$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.69	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	79c	1,315$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.69	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	24c	1,277$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	1c	1,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	22c	1,187$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.56	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	35c	1,151$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	2c	1,145$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,070$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	7c	1,059$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.62	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	28c	1,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	25c	703.16$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.08	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	25c	702.4$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	685.24$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.63	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f92…df1dbacked Yes	1c	678.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	7c	660.78$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.26	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	6c	628.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	623.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	27c	600.22$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.47	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	19c	575.45$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.91	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes	28c	573.84$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.52	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	74c	529.04$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.97	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	73c	527.58$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	524.99$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.54	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c44…2ba0backed Yes	18c	501.89$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb169…7aa7backed Yes	11c	483.09$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.89	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	480$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.47	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes	11c	476.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.36	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	31c	471.24$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.04	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	20c	448$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.44	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	18c	438.1$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.69	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	72c	435.95$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.48	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	21c	421.23$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	30c	402.47$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	77c	370.3$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.84	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	29c	345.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	17c	345.31$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	24c	338$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	29c	333.36$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.32	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	19c	321.48$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	20c	320$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	33c	307.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…6659backed Yes	17c	299.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	7c	289.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked No	80c	257.94$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.74	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	25c	250$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.27	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4975…3341backed Yes	8c	244$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	15c	218.78$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe415…eec9backed Yes	26c	189.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes	30c	150$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	69c	150$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.5	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	26c	150$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed No	76c	121$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	28c	117.8$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.68	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	12c	110$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	25c	102.97$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	32c	101.89$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	20c	101.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	20c	101.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1c7…93ddbacked Yes	25c	101$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	78c	99.99$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.48	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	20c	97.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de0…2041backed Yes	29c	96.47$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…375dbacked Yes	29c	86.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba6…e5e9backed Yes	25c	81.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4617…654bbacked Yes	25c	81.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No	77c	78.45$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.84	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes	26c	77.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a80…76d6backed Yes	32c	76.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…71cdbacked Yes	27c	72.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	28c	72.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a45…fcf6backed Yes	28c	71.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	18c	70.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	27c	70.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa220…b796backed Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2e…8fbbbacked Yes	32c	69.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-31%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	31c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56a1…7b89backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	26c	59.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event