Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468c16c83d683ab273a90d662c9e41d0893cb1debc5c44d9ad9825f06d818980

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	6,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	3,628$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	5c	2,700$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.2	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	1,540$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.61	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,314$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.73	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,121$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	1,104$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.28	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	3c	840$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	455.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes	10c	367.62$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…6cf0backed Yes	11c	178.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	152.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7381…b54bbacked Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…b796backed Yes	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event