Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf822548d2741a8af96c571f27e21e637de671ceccd932990aacecbea5eba118e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 22,816$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,448.25 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 75c | 18,041$13,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,515.11 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 0c | 13,680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes | 74c | 7,112$5,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 61c | 6,000$3,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 5,388$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,194.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 40c | 4,432$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.67 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 53c | 3,783$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked No | 76c | 3,594$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 32c | 3,515$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.96 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 58c | 3,177$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 37c | 2,757$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.29 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,588$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.12 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 50c | 2,554$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.72 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 54c | 2,446$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.16 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 54c | 2,377$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.99 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,260$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 22c | 2,174$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.33 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 1,984$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 45c | 1,923$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.68 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 60c | 1,600$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.2 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 71c | 1,552$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 12c | 1,409$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 1,268$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.85 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,261$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.73 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 44c | 1,250$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.75 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 37c | 1,152$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.18 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,124$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.42 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 14c | 1,072$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.61 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 998$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes | 32c | 977.32$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 937.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.25 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed No | 53c | 912.03$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 876.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.14 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 36c | 830.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 2c | 819.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +475.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 643.03$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.88 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 61c | 625.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 67c | 592.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…9101backed Yes | 4c | 577.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +450.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 2c | 520.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 39c | 517.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.63 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 31c | 510.95$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.34 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5490backed Yes | 57c | 509.22$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.46 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…0d28backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 53c | 436.47$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 67c | 436$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 409.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.82 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 9c | 404$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.59 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 71c | 403.43$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.01 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 28c | 396.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.15 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 33c | 389$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 32c | 381.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.42 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 14c | 368.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afb…7f99backed Yes | 3c | 367.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 43c | 349.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 71c | 325.13$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 57c | 294$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 54c | 291$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 35c | 288.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 52c | 287$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…d114backed Yes | 16c | 282.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 34c | 273.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 65c | 271.24$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…7b06backed No | 41c | 269.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…fe7abacked Yes | 8c | 257.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 67c | 240.19$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…914fbacked No | 42c | 231.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 16c | 204$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.23 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 79c | 199.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 54c | 199.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 55c | 198.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 49c | 197.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…8908backed Yes | 65c | 193.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 28c | 189.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 30c | 185.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 20c | 183.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…5d89backed Yes | 55c | 183.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked Yes | 45c | 177.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…f296backed Yes | 62c | 175.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 72c | 166.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 56c | 151.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…5465backed Yes | 33c | 151.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 37c | 144.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…8eb5backed Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…55b9backed Yes | 47c | 137.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…4855backed Yes | 61c | 130.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 55c | 128.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…1b00backed Yes | 68c | 126.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked No | 35c | 125.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…eec9backed Yes | 36c | 120.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 37c | 115.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaa…c528backed Yes | 62c | 109$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…7f51backed Yes | 59c | 108.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d3…445ebacked Yes | 69c | 104.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…5ab1backed No | 40c | 103.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.