TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes2c22,816$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,448.258206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes75c18,041$13,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,515.113420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No0c13,680$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.685325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes74c7,112$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes61c6,000$3,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c5,388$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,194.952,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed No40c4,432$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.6728534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes53c3,783$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.6629331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…082abacked No76c3,594$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes32c3,515$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.9654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes58c3,177$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.54126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes37c2,757$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.2968615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes4c2,588$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.127966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes50c2,554$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.7245715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes54c2,446$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.1623217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes54c2,377$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.9938811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,260$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.662,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes22c2,174$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.3322119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No14c1,984$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.742548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes45c1,923$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.684912.2%6 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No60c1,600$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No71c1,552$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.56248.4%30 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes12c1,409$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.591010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes2c1,268$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.855045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c1,261$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.7318531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No44c1,250$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.7523464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No37c1,152$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1812411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,124$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.421,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes14c1,072$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.6111220.5%23 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No14c998$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.723023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes32c977.32$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.322128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes1c937.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.2530310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3726backed No53c912.03$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.442626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes7c876.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.144869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes36c830.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d67…81f2backed Yes2c819.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.92714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+475.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c643.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.8899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes61c625.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.991225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes67c592.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.714524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes4c577.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+450.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No2c520.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113342.4%14 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes39c517.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.634337.2%16 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes31c510.95$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.3413818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes57c509.22$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.463116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes2c500$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.51816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+236.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.031618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes53c436.47$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.241513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes67c436$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.486243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes4c409.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.8265311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes9c404$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.595198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No71c403.43$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0111556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes28c396.32$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.1520717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes33c389$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26141718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes32c381.58$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4253817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No14c368.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.514568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes3c367.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.761631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+217.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes43c349.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3343126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes71c325.13$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.258922.5%20 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2345625%14 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes57c294$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.413619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes54c291$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.193729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Yes35c288.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+113%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes52c287$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4717322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes16c282.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.11926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes34c273.49$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6545911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes65c271.24$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2413020%26 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc568…7b06backed No41c269.18$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98fe…fe7abacked Yes8c257.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed Yes55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x055e…de32backed Yes67c240.19$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.24736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd3d…914fbacked No42c231.76$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes16c204$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No41c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.81216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes79c199.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.12528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes54c199.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.496038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes55c198.38$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3410339.8%41 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes49c197.08$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9524618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes65c193.97$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.923315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1512…68f3backed Yes28c189.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.551346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+84.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes30c185.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.44119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-69.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes20c183.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.661526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4b…5d89backed Yes55c183.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked Yes45c177.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.956535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc7…f296backed Yes62c175.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No72c166.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f1…ec06backed Yes56c151.58$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…5465backed Yes33c151.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.721030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed Yes37c144.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.43333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7403…8eb5backed Yes57c140$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes47c137.72$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.014022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35e…4855backed Yes61c130.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No55c128.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.354055%22 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…1b00backed Yes68c126.17$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked No35c125.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.668413.1%11 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe415…eec9backed Yes36c120.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.351225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes37c115.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.938026.3%21 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaa…c528backed Yes62c109$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe228…7f51backed Yes59c108.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d3…445ebacked Yes69c104.62$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd25a…5ab1backed No40c103.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.