Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8fe640edebff0ad85a3550e0544e898a8d9ff6b0b2e0eaa4cfb12714a3b070

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $204,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,673 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	88,930$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.79	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	8,120$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.11	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,843$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,136$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.37	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	0c	4,265$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,215$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,047$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92dd…5c0dbacked Yes	1c	3,698$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	3c	2,922$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.2	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes	8c	2,398$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	2,140$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,040$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	1,962$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	2c	1,524$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	3c	1,420$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.51	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,389$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,208$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	6c	1,016$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.45	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	4c	612.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	6c	587.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	17c	499.64$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.35	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes	2c	457.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	2cpaid	+450.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	354.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	3c	344.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	299.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	6c	260.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…6d69backed Yes	8c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event