Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41c21b56adb6f5c498cff905c6d553811727927b66af2fbf260e78ce7024dba

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $322,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $135,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,129 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	43,620$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.35	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	36,006$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes	0c	15,855$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	10,001$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	1c	10,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	7c	8,426$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.17	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,166$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	29c	5,600$1,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,606.03	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	0c	4,695$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	8c	4,656$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.7	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	4,539$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.85	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	2c	4,500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Yes	0c	4,125$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	3,396$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.04	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	1c	3,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	28c	2,966$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.87	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	1c	2,964$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8528…804cbacked Yes	34c	2,080$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	1c	2,014$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	33c	2,001$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.7	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	4c	1,999$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.02	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+92.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	14c	1,919$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.16	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	40c	1,763$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	16c	1,600$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.5	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	7c	1,425$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	1,423$1,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.1	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	9c	1,356$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.39	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	19c	1,300$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	11c	1,242$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.65	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	21c	1,216$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	2c	1,171$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	20c	1,150$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.89	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	1,100$867 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.79	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	5c	997.77$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.58	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	63c	856.08$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.53	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes	36c	829.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	22c	774.96$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.04	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	20c	593.72$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	30c	500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	31c	485.18$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.92	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	32c	451.83$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.7	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	15c	448.83$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	24c	423.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	6c	400.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	376.96$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	374.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	20c	370.74$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.03	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed No	59c	359.34$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.96	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0c…782dbacked Yes	28c	345.85$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	14c	345.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes	15c	328.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	31c	318.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	14c	305$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.25	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	10c	300$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	75c	278.99$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.79	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	266.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	16c	247.18$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	234.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	43c	231$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	28c	225.89$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.37	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	42c	225.2$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	73c	209.99$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.95	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes	30c	202.17$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	29c	156.11$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	29c	154$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes	40c	150$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.1	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c8f…5c18backed Yes	19c	147.74$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	26c	146.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c3…d720backed Yes	36c	138.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60f…6c4bbacked Yes	15c	134.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes	38c	132.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98fe…fe7abacked Yes	32c	125.01$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+308.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f5…9c45backed Yes	40c	122.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.12	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61b4…102cbacked Yes	28c	121.58$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	21c	109.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	26c	99.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	34c	87.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.49	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	29c	83.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	22c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	36c	78.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd370…6adfbacked Yes	43c	68.37$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…0774backed Yes	37c	67.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdce…a1d1backed Yes	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a5…7151backed Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c4…c28dbacked No	71c	55.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.97	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdf…d2f8backed Yes	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadbf…c901backed Yes	29c	51.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	28c	51.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	40c	50.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe310…7b60backed Yes	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x247d…4642backed No	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd9…647fbacked Yes	41c	44.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b3…3dffbacked No	74c	39.89$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.37	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event