TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c124,008$438 inLost-$438.028206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c55,414$61 inLost-$60.617828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c16,276$92 inLost-$91.947966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes0c10,000$15 inLost-$151506%9 W · 141 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c9,159$36 inLost-$36.272,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c7,661$27 inLost-$27.381,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost-$5023217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c4,450$50 inLost-$50.362,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes1c3,006$27 inLost-$275045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes1c2,586$25 inLost-$25.261010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes1c2,427$14 inLost-$14.265311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes1c2,225$23 inLost-$22.825198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes2c2,065$50 inLost-$507311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes1c1,817$14 inLost-$14.3981%1 W · 97 L-0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes2c1,487$28 inLost-$27.861926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes1c1,229$17 inLost-$172128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98fe…fe7abacked Yes3c926.47$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes1c868.92$11 inLost-$11520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+450.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c868.49$11 inLost-$10.773218.8%6 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.