Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fdac4bf5569990a591ce3177d12aa644e328c4419c9c7ff9ec5719a3bd5d27

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $78,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,212 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	8,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	33c	5,625$1,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,872.8	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	5,388$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.7	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	6c	5,144$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.73	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x316b…cbc0backed Yes	49c	4,579$2,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,254.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	23c	3,446$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.8	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	13c	3,370$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.8	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	71c	3,144$2,227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$917.08	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	16c	2,010$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.23	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	26c	1,931$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	24c	1,800$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.9	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	22c	1,800$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0156…11dfbacked Yes	39c	1,795$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	7c	1,792$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.18	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	44c	1,714$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$962.36	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	32c	1,612$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.19	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	29c	1,444$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.03	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	36c	1,433$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.92	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	1,362$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.77	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	1,260$839 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.11	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	23c	1,246$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.66	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	1,200$953 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes	28c	1,200$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	36c	1,122$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked No	62c	1,079$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.39	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	39c	879.49$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	21c	823.76$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.33	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	23c	800$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.5	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No	67c	775.6$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.65	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes	42c	716.62$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	72c	709.58$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.6	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	20c	706.8$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	16c	649.51$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61b4…102cbacked Yes	6c	582.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed Yes	18c	556.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	16c	505.99$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.64	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	78c	471.45$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.56	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	39c	447.85$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.68	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	6c	429.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	26c	429.21$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb409…d114backed Yes	6c	420.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	8c	395$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	364.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.54	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	24c	359.45$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.27	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	340.86$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	30c	334.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes	31c	318.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f0c…782dbacked Yes	30c	314.08$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes	10c	306.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	35c	300.43$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.27	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	25c	300$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes	44c	297.71$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.94	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	26c	286.48$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	67c	276.87$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.2	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	75cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	19c	250$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	34c	235.66$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.12	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	22c	222.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	30c	210$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.3	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…52f1backed Yes	36c	187.83$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes	24c	179.5$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.08	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	19c	150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes	42c	149.25$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.38	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	25c	148.74$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	14c	140$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes	37c	133.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6acd…2fa7backed Yes	37c	133.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	31c	132.64$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No	65c	131.26$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.26	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	41c	121.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	38c	106.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	22c	106.52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afb…7f99backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+217.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdadb…184ebacked No	65c	104.73$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	29c	102.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec02…d870backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc70…3ebcbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	61c	99.99$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.66	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdce…a1d1backed Yes	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked No	65c	89.23$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.23	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes	25c	82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes	21c	78.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8904…c02dbacked Yes	36c	78.44$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	14c	75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	29c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7381…b54bbacked Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…b796backed Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	29c	69.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	31c	61.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd0…c6c4backed Yes	30c	61.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe490…8816backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd3…934fbacked Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event