Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15722103dd8a504b9778815f51a4cd12313d8ddc2adcd92c5cbbfcbd0186f890

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 3, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $302,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $139,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	1c	27,750$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	5c	27,473$1,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,348.76	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	23,076$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.37	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes	9c	12,000$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes	1c	8,197$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	7,074$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.76	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	39c	5,200$2,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.05	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	10c	4,024$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.17	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	9c	3,852$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.87	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	10c	3,700$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.1	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0156…11dfbacked Yes	42c	2,747$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	10c	2,497$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.66	124	11.3%14 W · 110 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	2,359$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes	17c	2,271$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.77	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	15c	2,189$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.98	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes	18c	2,185$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	1c	2,086$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	14c	1,826$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes	4c	1,756$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	11c	1,752$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…aa4dbacked Yes	7c	1,677$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	30cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,513$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	1,510$1,191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.73	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	1,326$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	5c	1,291$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes	13c	1,288$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.42	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	21c	1,266$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.46	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	10c	1,247$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.63	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	23c	1,215$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.83	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes	5c	1,024$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	24c	1,013$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.84	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	34c	935.18$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.12	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	11c	931.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes	10c	909.24$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.32	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b9…1fe3backed Yes	41c	905.56$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	13c	840.22$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	3c	805.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.66	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…4d45backed Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	750$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	620$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	21c	614.9$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.62	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	612$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.85	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	25c	600$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	11c	578.42$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes	8c	573$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	548.49$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	13c	543.01$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.13	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	9c	526.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	15c	519.25$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	20c	495.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	17c	488.25$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.72	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	11c	448$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.53	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	14c	443$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.43	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes	23c	442.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes	14c	440.87$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.53	113	28.3%32 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes	7c	437.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	421.08$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	8c	393.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes	13c	382.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	14c	370.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.2	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	28c	366.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.81	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0c…782dbacked Yes	21c	317.55$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb60…27f4backed Yes	9c	304$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	13c	300$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	6c	279$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf414…917fbacked Yes	19c	265.53$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fc…4273backed Yes	8c	235.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	37c	220$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.42	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+92.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	8c	207$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	7c	181.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	12c	171.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes	12c	167.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	8c	163$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	14c	161.07$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	8c	160.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e343backed Yes	11c	160.07$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	160$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958f…5465backed Yes	8c	150.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	34c	147$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe556…4922backed Yes	8c	143.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes	12c	141.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	11c	130$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	12c	124.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3493…40afbacked Yes	41c	121.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	17c	115.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc79…7609backed Yes	13c	104$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8904…c02dbacked Yes	19c	103.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe97d…622bbacked Yes	17c	103.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Yes	24c	101.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes	20c	100.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	17%16 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e1…4252backed Yes	41c	100.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cff…83c4backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c3…022fbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d3…a690backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+369.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event