TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06e1…8f7e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst F1 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+120.8%+$13.67
Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.4%+$12.87
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$92.05
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$75.34
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will Piráti get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$6.78
Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+44.5%+$14.09
Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+66.6%+$26.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.65
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$99.11
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$51.74
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.5%+$63.01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$18.42
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+41.3%+$104.81
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$26.17
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+65.8%+$9.92
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$660.14
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+48.6%+$76.57
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.4%+$57.15
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+78.3%+$10.97
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have more than 330m views on September 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+42%+$36.8
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+58.5%+$18.45
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross 125–150% of "The Senior"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$42.36
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+60.9%+$114.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.6%+$8.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Emeka Egbuka be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+35.9%+$18.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+33.2%+$6.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pakistan win the 2025 Asia Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+32.1%+$71.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greece win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+28%+$5.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NHL: Ovechkin final season? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$9.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+25.3%+$29.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.74
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.