World Politics · resolved market
Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4e73cf119d7c61d2da474e6a66adcff499dbe9b3a008913bb84bfc600d7f17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb85c…b783backed Yes | 15c | 12,727$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 5c | 2,270$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 6c | 1,501$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,274$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 959.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 24c | 953$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 22c | 895.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…8621backed Yes | 6c | 647.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…e76dbacked Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 3c | 599.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…edd9backed Yes | 6c | 419.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60f…6c4bbacked Yes | 4c | 415.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…35ecbacked Yes | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 17c | 314.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 25c | 278.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…2f85backed Yes | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 9c | 126.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…7683backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 69c | 45.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will ANO get between 27% and 30% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will ANO get less than 27% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.