World Politics · resolved market
Will ANO get between 27% and 30% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada6b6f60fa72066bcdd5e0eb185e483636831a3f2b70a229a2361773d3cb048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,180$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 24c | 585.84$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 24c | 475.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 18c | 465.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 28c | 446$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 30c | 337.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 71c | 314$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4d…4b3fbacked Yes | 34c | 274.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 25c | 273.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 29c | 268.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 15c | 164.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…2d5abacked Yes | 34c | 149.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 25c | 132.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…3e1ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 93.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…38c2backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…a462backed Yes | 30c | 67.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…a812backed Yes | 29c | 60.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…9807backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…03d4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ANO get between 27% and 30% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will ANO get less than 27% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.