Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6209213dc8166eee008f8dd2dc3141f28192bf3856d6e5758560a7483fd2c1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 46,885$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,721$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 8,200$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.35 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 38c | 7,505$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888.31 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,896$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 6,346$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,556$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 60c | 5,099$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.47 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,799$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…770ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 79c | 3,851$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.64 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,610$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…0005backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…02efbacked Yes | 0c | 3,360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…edaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,944$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 0c | 2,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,845$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,816$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 1c | 2,775$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3d…05c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,544$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 4c | 2,496$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…a6f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,089$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,057$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,908$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 6c | 1,856$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,770$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 15c | 1,756$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,564$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed Yes | 1c | 1,211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 4c | 967.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 15c | 965$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 928.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 1c | 925.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 19c | 916.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 902.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 808.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 683.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…8dadbacked Yes | 1c | 678.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a4…7490backed Yes | 3c | 604.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bc37backed Yes | 3c | 465.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +335.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 440.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 14c | 365.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 323.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 23c | 228.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 8c | 158.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 78c | 123.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…ff52backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.