Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb4535663902d2df204a06cfbcce74ff63f46a573374ab741bfdb2f9fc6dcdd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 79c | 33,526$26,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,125.13 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed No | 15c | 22,000$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 58c | 17,335$10,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,254.05 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 80c | 14,058$11,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 68c | 5,415$3,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.34 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 73c | 4,744$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 4,024$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.57 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 3,291$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 69c | 3,231$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 77c | 3,105$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed No | 8c | 2,771$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,572$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.54 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,065$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.6 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 24c | 2,043$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.4 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 67c | 1,517$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 7c | 1,333$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 42c | 1,254$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.71 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 52c | 1,001$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.74 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 79c | 899.99$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 10c | 893.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 21c | 812.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.41 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 61c | 795.87$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 47c | 779.05$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 19c | 767.57$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 744.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 614.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 9c | 572.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 510.12$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 80c | 450$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 420$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.17 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 19c | 415.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 13c | 410$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 37c | 374.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 22c | 345$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 70c | 344.53$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed No | 70c | 305.5$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 300.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 79c | 254.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 33c | 251.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f97…96bdbacked Yes | 67c | 213.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…a6f5backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 31c | 197.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 56c | 194.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 46c | 160.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 10c | 158.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…49b3backed No | 49c | 111.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 70c | 111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…ee3abacked No | 34c | 80.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…3cb1backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed No | 67c | 73.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…c0cebacked No | 15c | 71.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…79b1backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…0642backed No | 36c | 48.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…fa8ebacked Yes | 75c | 41.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…db1fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…df5fbacked Yes | 66c | 39.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9504…df93backed Yes | 67c | 33.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…13cbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…a221backed Yes | 67c | 26.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941c…7631backed Yes | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.