Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ac0879bd060c85f9c9f51413004b6da0816bb90b070c5c68401374d53089b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 27,658$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 14,103$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.41 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 10,197$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.72 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 0c | 6,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 17c | 5,855$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.75 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7c…cd98backed Yes | 4c | 4,375$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 13c | 4,318$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,083$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 3,071$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,905$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 19c | 2,893$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.55 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 28c | 1,944$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.48 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 2c | 1,831$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 7c | 1,793$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,788$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 18c | 1,596$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,449$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 68c | 1,298$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 17c | 1,122$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,015$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.74 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 999.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 5c | 872.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 750.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 4c | 720.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 695.28$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 4c | 609.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 24c | 561.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…1f82backed Yes | 4c | 490.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 416$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 408.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 60c | 403$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9a61backed Yes | 3c | 399.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 77c | 397.81$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 319.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 17c | 247.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…5937backed Yes | 14c | 229.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 80c | 218$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 206.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…edaebacked Yes | 7c | 194.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 13c | 183.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…a6f5backed Yes | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 154.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 15c | 145.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 124.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…618abacked Yes | 77c | 41.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.