Movies · resolved market
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have more than 330m views on September 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682b4cf968a6bba5a8b05e4fa96cad621982f503c5e27e6891d0294ac80759ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c6…8effbacked Yes | 17c | 5,640$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Yes | 5c | 3,523$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,234$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 26c | 1,571$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…eb58backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 32c | 1,328$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.72 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bb97backed Yes | 10c | 868.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 868.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 6c | 789.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 43c | 722.52$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 77c | 577.46$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 20c | 556.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 445.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 72c | 404.53$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 30c | 392.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 6c | 326.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 79c | 231.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked Yes | 44c | 228.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 31c | 210.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 166.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 70c | 124.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…61d6backed Yes | 21c | 120.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7d…3cedbacked Yes | 18c | 94.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 40c | 68.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 44c | 65.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…909bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have more than 330m views on September 23?this page
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 270-290m views on September 23?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 290-310m views on September 23?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?Yes won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have less than 270m views on September 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.