Movies · resolved market
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9073e63743019c3a69222899f66406bfa1a8aec6d00a9b5063e42cf926c1158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 65c | 4,069$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…8effbacked No | 28c | 2,133$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 68c | 1,858$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.68 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 66c | 1,220$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.56 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 71c | 1,021$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 38c | 559.23$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…aeb8backed Yes | 30c | 514.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 318.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 14c | 272.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…46bdbacked No | 42c | 168.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 152.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9d…bbf0backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 59c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked Yes | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 42.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 33c | 38.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?this page
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 270-290m views on September 23?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 290-310m views on September 23?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have less than 270m views on September 23?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have more than 330m views on September 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.