TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes65c4,069$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c6…8effbacked No28c2,133$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes68c1,858$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.685839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes66c1,220$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.5611352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes71c1,021$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.181421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No38c559.23$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.035042%21 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771a…aeb8backed Yes30c514.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+131.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No15c318.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.771,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed No14c272.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258a…46bdbacked No42c168.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c152.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.75625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e9d…bbf0backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes59c96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes26c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.027945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96fc…446abacked Yes80c67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.45875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No53c42.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8313135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No33c38.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.715145.1%23 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7965…e542backed Yes52c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.97450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8919240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.