TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x520d…babe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
151
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 51 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT11352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 113 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+599.7%+$239.89
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$80.88
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+1,023.6%+$273.3
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+57.5%+$328.44
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+71.3%+$125.1
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$198.45
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$2,593.5
Will Die My Love be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$53
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+55.9%+$179.23
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33.8
Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$24
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+82.4%+$90.61
Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.6%+$106.72
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$41.8
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+68%+$161.9
Will Britt Lower (Severance) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$61.5
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+71.1%+$270.02
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$687.19
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.11
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30.03
Showing 25 of 113 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+245.3%+$213.02
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Rihanna release an album in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.7%+$55.46
Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 7 straight weeks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$59.7
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Oct 25th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$419
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 300k and 350k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+114.5%+$137.44
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 350k and 400k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+92.1%+$275.26
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.02
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+196.9%+$425.87
The Life of a Showgirl Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG II" debut at #1 in its first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.17
Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Will Drake's "Which One" debut at #1 in its first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+44.4%+$66.64
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+34.5%+$172.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.