AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef713103771b3cd1f6c2df153cf297f63e17135f1309d26701906db81a2491f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 45c | 1,325$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.64 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…aea2backed Yes | 58c | 716$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 41c | 520.46$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 41c | 482.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.54 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 47c | 471.05$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.81 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 46c | 415$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 55c | 314$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Yes | 58c | 267.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 42c | 251.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 49c | 202.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 48c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 60c | 199.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…fd74backed Yes | 57c | 176.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 57c | 174.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 47c | 170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 51c | 146.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 143.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 53c | 134.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 53c | 125.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 46c | 103.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 45c | 102.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…5343backed Yes | 59c | 100.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…5c30backed Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…a919backed Yes | 53c | 79.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…d14bbacked Yes | 54c | 79.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 60c | 66.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 42c | 59.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 50c | 54.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 53c | 50.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd678…838fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…fa4cbacked Yes | 54c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked Yes | 46c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6da…59a5backed Yes | 53c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 54c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…7716backed Yes | 57c | 23.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?this page
- Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Grok" 5 or more times during the August 6 AMA?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk say "Hitler/MechaHitler" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Imagine/Veo" 3 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Mainstream /Legacy" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Trump" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Vine" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Woke" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "xAI" 2 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.