AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0b3a091a1f06c8843076151c0f8e39e175d4792cb9de9dd623e4b8c01346f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 24c | 1,170$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.41 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…d8b4backed Yes | 75c | 952.93$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 77c | 390.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 36c | 386.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.31 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed Yes | 79c | 361.38$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 313.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 20c | 299.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 72c | 155$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 73c | 142.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 29c | 107.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 46c | 104.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 33c | 86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Yes | 75c | 66.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 73c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…329fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…474cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…699fbacked Yes | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?this page
- Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Grok" 5 or more times during the August 6 AMA?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk say "Hitler/MechaHitler" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Imagine/Veo" 3 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Mainstream /Legacy" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Trump" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Vine" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Woke" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "xAI" 2 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.