AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk say "Vine" during the August 6 AMA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1d1ead62c6a02e2a32de5bae013f925d09fde3e7a29184f7d7ed080dd8e811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 41c | 1,099$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.59 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 53c | 560$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…5c30backed Yes | 70c | 191$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 89.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 67c | 85.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed Yes | 54c | 77.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…780dbacked Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked No | 51c | 45.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked Yes | 56c | 18.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk say "Vine" during the August 6 AMA?this page
- Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Grok" 5 or more times during the August 6 AMA?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk say "Hitler/MechaHitler" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Imagine/Veo" 3 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Mainstream /Legacy" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Trump" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Woke" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "xAI" 2 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.