AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b00c3d9c28029e1a0e86afe495d0f8ba374e551bc95c2e86cb2b6fedbb77fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 49c | 625.4$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.95 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 63c | 565$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 48c | 400.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 44c | 206$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dfa3backed Yes | 49c | 184.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 62c | 177$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 152.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1d…45bdbacked Yes | 60c | 152.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 59c | 129.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 26c | 93.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 58c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 67c | 89.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 45c | 78.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 49c | 52.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 42c | 44.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…8e9abacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 63c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…6cdbbacked Yes | 74c | 26.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk say "Ad format" during the August 6 AMA?this page
- Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Grok" 5 or more times during the August 6 AMA?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk say "Hitler/MechaHitler" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Imagine/Veo" 3 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Mainstream /Legacy" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Trump" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Vine" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "Woke" during the August 6 AMA?No won
- Will Elon Musk say "xAI" 2 or more times during the August 6 AMA?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.