TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb00a…624a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2025, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Khachanovbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$13.36
ATP Toronto – Lehecka vs. Fritzbacked Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.82
ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+43.3%+$53.6
ATP Toronto – Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokinabacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$18.16
ATP Toronto – Tiafoe vs. De Minaurbacked De Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$17.76
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Cerundolobacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+30.6%+$22.71
ATP Toronto – Davidovich Fokina vs. Mensikbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.82
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Arnaldibacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$34.82
ATP Toronto – Tien vs. Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.42
ATP Toronto – Etcheverry vs. Cerundolobacked Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.32
ATP Toronto – Musetti vs. Michelsenbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.97
ATP Toronto – Fils vs. Carreno Bustabacked Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+37%+$6.57
ATP Toronto – Marozsan vs. Auger Aliassime backed Marozsan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+151.4%+$82.53
ATP Toronto – Shapovalov vs. Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+149.2%+$20.41
ATP Toronto – Borges vs. Bagnisbacked Bagnis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.46
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.1
All 16 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2025, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.21
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+229.2%+$1,417.17
Marlins vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.32
Pirates vs. Giantsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$85.28
Rangers vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+128.3%+$62.56
Mets vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+78.9%+$26.59
Dodgers vs. Redsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+252.3%+$44.84
Red Sox vs. Twinsbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$38.76
Braves vs. Royalsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.24
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.99
Dodgers vs. Red Soxbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.55
Mariners vs. Yankeesbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
Guardians vs. Cubsbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.69
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$16.19
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.64
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$31.15
Israel strikes Syria by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.42
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.88
All 10 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.32
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+136.3%+$58.66
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+153.6%+$27.82
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+40.1%+$18.33
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+76.3%+$15.26
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.64
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Serrano vs. Taylorbacked Taylor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+119.1%+$17.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
League of Legends: T1 vs. Nongshim Red Forcebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$52.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$252.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $210 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.