Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Khachanov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a4632ea20a03ff68c380330074d626e6d9b93cefa11345fff854933314dc59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Khachanovof Michelsen, Khachanov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Khachanov | 68c | 30,000$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Michelsen | 32c | 17,195$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,502.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Khachanov | 69c | 8,684$5,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.11 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michelsen | 33c | 7,483$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.55 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Michelsen | 32c | 6,729$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Michelsen | 32c | 6,374$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.57 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Khachanov | 80c | 3,967$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michelsen | 31c | 3,851$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.74 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Khachanov | 66c | 3,042$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.99 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Michelsen | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Michelsen | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…32aebacked Khachanov | 68c | 1,835$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michelsen | 33c | 1,597$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.95 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Michelsen | 20c | 1,537$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.19 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Khachanov | 67c | 1,526$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Khachanov | 68c | 1,356$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.95 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Michelsen | 34c | 1,350$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Khachanov | 74c | 1,308$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.32 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked Khachanov | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Michelsen | 30c | 999.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Khachanov | 69c | 986.23$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.95 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Michelsen | 36c | 898.41$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen | 24c | 874$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Michelsen | 33c | 735$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Michelsen | 30c | 683.7$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Khachanov | 67c | 682.09$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Khachanov | 69c | 643.48$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Khachanov | 65c | 614.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.17 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Khachanov | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Khachanov | 67c | 545.73$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Khachanov | 69c | 533.12$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Michelsen | 33c | 530.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Khachanov | 68c | 470.59$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Khachanov | 69c | 447.97$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Michelsen | 32c | 340.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michelsen | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…42e0backed Khachanov | 69c | 270.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Khachanov | 72c | 208.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Michelsen | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Khachanov | 69c | 192.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Khachanov | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Michelsen | 34c | 151.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Michelsen | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Khachanov | 66c | 133.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Michelsen | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Michelsen | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Michelsen | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Michelsen | 52c | 117.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Michelsen | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6be0backed Khachanov | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…535fbacked Khachanov | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Michelsen | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Michelsen | 32c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Michelsen | 23c | 83.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Khachanov | 69c | 76.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Khachanov | 67c | 76.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Michelsen | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Khachanov | 66c | 66.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Khachanov | 67c | 61.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Michelsen | 34c | 60.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Khachanov | 69c | 59.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Khachanov | 69c | 57.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Michelsen | 34c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Michelsen | 32c | 50.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Khachanov | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Khachanov | 68c | 45.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…5279backed Khachanov | 69c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…624abacked Khachanov | 69c | 43.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…2adcbacked Khachanov | 69c | 41.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…060ebacked Michelsen | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Michelsen | 46c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Khachanov | 69c | 32.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Michelsen | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Khachanov | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Khachanov | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Khachanov | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.