TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf22e…f52c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: UFC, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 56 out of 100; worst Tennis at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT5525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP Toronto – De Minaur vs. Sheltonbacked De Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,934.33
ATP Toronto – Rublev vs. Fritzbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,390Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,389.63
ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Khachanovbacked Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.19
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Popyrinbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT+111.5%+$739.37
ATP Toronto – Cobolli vs. Sheltonbacked Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,965Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,964.67
ATP Toronto – Rublev vs. Davidovich Fokinabacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$1,078.79
ATP Toronto – Nakashima vs. Sheltonbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,095.98
ATP Toronto – Diallo vs. Fritzbacked Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,160.75
ATP Washington D.C – Davidovich Fokina vs. De Minaurbacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,245.75
ATP Washington D.C – Davidovich Fokina vs. Sheltonbacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,768Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT+275.2%+$4,865.77
ATP Washington D.C – Moutet vs. De Minaurbacked Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,056.41
ATP Washington D.C – Fritz vs. Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+96.3%+$532.62
ATP Washington D.C – De Minaur vs. Nakashimabacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,021.68
ATP Washington D.C – Fritz vs. Arnaldi backed Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$489.97
ATP Washington D.C: Medvedev vs. Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$803Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$803.25
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11,484Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,484.14
Wimbledon Final – Anisimova vs. Swiatekbacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19,841Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19,840.66
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$5,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,485.91
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$4,586Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,585.66
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Fritz backed Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$4,619Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,619.25
Wimbledon: Bencic vs. Swiatek (W) backed Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.72
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,299Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+200.5%+$2,604.96
Wimbledon: Cobolli vs. Djokovic backed Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,091Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,091
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Shelton backed Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,093Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,093.12
Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Alcaraz backed Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$999.01
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,544Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$3,512.71
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,495Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+70.3%+$1,051.25
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$2,981.46
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,719.81
UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez backed Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+300.3%+$1,129
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$808Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$808.45
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuberbacked Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$3,522.92
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfimbacked Thompson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$6,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,912.42
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,098.62
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,027Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+102.4%+$2,075.31
UFC 317: Talbott vs. Limabacked Lima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,998.18
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Usman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,806Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+188.7%+$5,294.49
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
Gamrot vs. Kleinbacked Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,382Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+68.2%+$942.08
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+53.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$7,689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,688.83
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,578Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+150%+$2,366.4
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,011.46
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+415.9%+$10,563.18
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$998.11
All 5 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$427.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.