TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Pacers, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,990,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,379,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,990,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 863 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Pacers23c275,366$62,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,208.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers21c243,782$52,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,039.328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder77c230,130$177,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,381.2896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers23c184,747$42,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,054.8514434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder77c184,680$142,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,714.0618146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Pacers23c182,352$41,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,431.0218151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder77c180,000$138,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,399.9714052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Thunder77c149,999$115,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,499.843764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Thunder77c148,878$114,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,400.388840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Thunder78c115,645$90,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,441.972147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Thunder79c108,761$86,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,404.1813248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Pacers16c108,238$17,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,330.146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Pacers23c105,104$24,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,494.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Thunder77c102,300$78,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,528.992450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers22c93,908$20,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,553.495942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Pacers20c92,625$18,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,422.92190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Pacers4c78,061$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.348259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Pacers15c65,086$10,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.57929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…b648backed Pacers23c63,565$14,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,619.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder77c60,448$46,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,679.6119149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Pacers14c52,082$7,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,469.0616537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Thunder77c50,000$38,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,499.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Pacers18c47,735$8,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,729.52540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder78c45,000$34,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,099.981,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder77c44,444$34,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,222.0528241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Thunder78c43,471$33,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,540.1927840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder80c43,338$34,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,711.073,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Thunder77c42,558$32,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,960.25349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder78c37,153$28,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,263.0647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder78c35,774$27,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,993.8620248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers23c33,941$7,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,845.936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder78c32,500$25,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,15013560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder79c30,000$23,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,230.453852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Pacers23c26,400$6,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0725350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder77c26,149$20,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.365959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Thunder78c26,000$20,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7203237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Thunder78c25,241$19,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,553.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Thunder78c25,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5004032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Thunder77c20,550$15,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers21c20,121$4,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,12613636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Pacers6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Pacers23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pacers24c17,002$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.152,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Thunder77c16,704$12,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,841.9666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Pacers22c16,405$3,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.214339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pacers8c14,872$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.6227917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4433…ab25backed Pacers14c14,195$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Thunder77c13,349$10,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.2661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6404…962abacked Pacers21c13,126$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder76c12,000$9,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8402,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Pacers13c11,900$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.0115724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder77c11,889$9,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.361,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Pacers23c10,316$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.8833735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Thunder77c10,173$7,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.1214161%86 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Pacers23c10,022$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30542827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Pacers22c10,000$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.151546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef0…657ebacked Thunder78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2003100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Thunder77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9710236.3%37 W · 65 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ba…c0eebacked Pacers23c9,800$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Thunder78c9,615$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.387445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Thunder79c9,513$7,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.4288053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f73…8d13backed Pacers23c9,455$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.61825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Pacers12c9,389$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.0328838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0292…4211backed Thunder77c9,292$7,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.191361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Pacers23c9,282$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.8615911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c3…8d15backed Pacers14c8,987$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.181233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Pacers17c8,732$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.542245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe38…1f16backed Thunder78c8,722$6,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.454126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Pacers21c8,417$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.6361851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e38…eb70backed Pacers12c8,302$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.23205%1 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick22cpaid-85.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Pacers18c7,777$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.6318536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Thunder77c7,259$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,67212040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Thunder77c7,200$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,67030351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed Pacers23c7,174$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Pacers20c6,884$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36816633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pacers9c6,734$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.341,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Thunder77c6,000$4,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3707354.8%40 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder77c5,943$4,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.216,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder77c5,821$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.592,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked Pacers18c5,727$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+53.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Thunder77c5,652$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.3833746.3%156 W · 181 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed Pacers14c5,607$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.894434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95dd…e453backed Thunder78c5,536$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.98366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Pacers23c5,473$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.847829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf9…85fabacked Pacers19c5,302$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Thunder77c5,194$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.6237734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Thunder78c5,128$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.215971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Thunder76c5,110$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers22c5,100$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8b…c749backed Pacers23c5,009$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Thunder78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10010049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x935d…ca3cbacked Pacers16c5,000$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Thunder76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Pacers20c4,896$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008353%44 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Pacers24c4,810$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.4330826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc8…5bf1backed Pacers4c4,535$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Pacers23c4,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0356152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Pacers23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.