NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7caa9348b4363809baf74ff428567defce0d5f5584447b9afc01dcf3d0e2ad29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Under | 52c | 27,156$14,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,100.73 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Over | 48c | 10,607$5,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,515.63 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 48c | 5,545$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,883.62 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 54c | 5,493$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.61 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 47c | 5,393$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.95 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,705$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.56 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 1,101$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.51 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Over | 40c | 1,093$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.24 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 973.28$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 3c | 935$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Under | 49c | 782.69$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.51 | 853 | 44%375 W · 478 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 681.25$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.25 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 69c | 648.28$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.52 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Over | 47c | 588$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.64 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 52c | 580.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.77 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Over | 48c | 578.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.86 | 199 | 43.7%87 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…7837backed Over | 45c | 465.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 48c | 460.63$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Under | 50c | 402.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Over | 50c | 399.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 330$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Under | 49c | 237.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Under | 50c | 218$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Over | 33c | 206.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 61c | 202$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…a1c1backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…11c3backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Under | 59c | 182.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 43c | 169.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 47c | 139.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Over | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Under | 46c | 100.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Over | 50c | 89.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 48c | 69.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…3fd4backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff5cbacked Under | 51c | 45.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…0061backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Under | 49c | 36.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 69.5%123 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Over | 48c | 31.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Under | 70c | 25.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 147 | 64.6%95 W · 52 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…5a18backed Over | 51c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…e223backed Over | 52c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07b…17cebacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…af57backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…4919backed Over | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…711ebacked Over | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4a…7694backed Over | 51c | 19.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 224.5this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Pacers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.