Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Medvedev vs. Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d677441abbdd9e59273150c5180fba05a4dc2ebe47fa1b782f85cbce9dec270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x336b…1233backed Opelka | 24c | 9,166$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.58 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Medvedev | 76c | 8,866$6,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.72 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Opelka | 26c | 3,089$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.25 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Medvedev | 59c | 2,862$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.17 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 74c | 2,215$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Opelka | 49c | 2,109$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.57 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Medvedev | 55c | 1,815$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Opelka | 43c | 1,710$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.9 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Medvedev | 74c | 1,656$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.54 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Opelka | 2c | 1,258$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Opelka | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…302ebacked Opelka | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…4df0backed Opelka | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…cf48backed Medvedev | 75c | 990$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…c0cfbacked Opelka | 68c | 973.19$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2242…ce59backed Opelka | 25c | 915$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Opelka | 58c | 815.47$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.13 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Medvedev | 54c | 710$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…8c34backed Medvedev | 75c | 645$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…199bbacked Medvedev | 75c | 620$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Opelka | 24c | 499.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medvedev | 75c | 498.66$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Medvedev | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Opelka | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…dbadbacked Medvedev | 75c | 380$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…7e26backed Medvedev | 75c | 355$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Medvedev | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…f30dbacked Medvedev | 66c | 172.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Opelka | 23c | 171.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Opelka | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Medvedev | 38c | 133.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Opelka | 18c | 131.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Medvedev | 47c | 127.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Opelka | 39c | 105.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Medvedev | 74c | 104.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Medvedev | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Medvedev | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…b446backed Opelka | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Medvedev | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Opelka | 24c | 66.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Opelka | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Medvedev | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Opelka | 24c | 55.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Medvedev | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Medvedev | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Medvedev | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed Medvedev | 76c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…e4afbacked Medvedev | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Medvedev | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Opelka | 59c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Medvedev | 76c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed Medvedev | 76c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…6f8abacked Medvedev | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.