Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Diallo vs. Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7412c48887d35027ec45ac45de89a989707d738dda01f0db145a89ab143750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Diallo, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Diallo | 6c | 10,874$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.05 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Diallo | 15c | 7,738$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.75 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Diallo | 17c | 2,440$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Fritz | 72c | 2,006$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.72 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Diallo | 30c | 1,647$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Diallo | 21c | 1,075$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…342cbacked Diallo | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Diallo | 28c | 885$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Fritz | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fritz | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…b252backed Fritz | 72c | 480.01$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fritz | 71c | 436.49$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…0b6abacked Diallo | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Fritz | 70c | 376.77$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Diallo | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Diallo | 31c | 324.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Diallo | 9c | 320$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fritz | 73c | 318.75$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fritz | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fritz | 69c | 273.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Diallo | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Fritz | 72c | 242$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Fritz | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Diallo | 27c | 199.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fritz | 69c | 186.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Fritz | 72c | 163.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Fritz | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Fritz | 72c | 119.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Diallo | 25c | 80.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Fritz | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…2582backed Fritz | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Fritz | 73c | 53.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…b8e9backed Diallo | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Fritz | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fritz | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Fritz | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.